Introduction
E‑commerce’s rapid growth is transforming both air freight volumes and logistics real‑estate demand. Prologis Research’s “Seven Bold Predictions for 2025” offers insights into how these forces will reshape freight markets prologis.getbynder.com. Understanding these predictions helps AFL clients make informed decisions on capacity planning and shipping modes.
Air Cargo Will Fly, Literally
Prologis predicts that air cargo volumes will surge by double digits in 2025 due to the continued expansion of cross‑border e‑commerce prologis.getbynder.com. The report notes that growth in Asia and Latin America drives this trend and that the Asia–North America lane already accounts for 25% of global air‑cargo volume prologis.getbynder.com. Key takeaways:
- Global e‑commerce penetration rates are expected to reach 24% worldwide and 26% in the U.S. prologis.getbynder.com. More online sales mean more parcels travelling by air for speed and reliability.
- Air freight will increasingly complement sea freight when ocean routes face disruption, such as port congestion or extreme weather.
- AFL expands its air‑freight capacity and forms partnerships with carriers to ensure competitive rates and priority space for clients.
Logistics Real Estate, Vacancy & Growth Hotspots
Prologis projects that vacancy rates for large logistics facilities (500,000 sq ft or larger) in the U.S. and Europe will decline by 100 basis points as demand surges and new supply lags prologis.getbynder.com. The report also notes:
- Groundbreakings of logistics buildings are expected to remain 15% below normal globally prologis.getbynder.com, signalling tighter supply.
- Brazil’s logistics real estate rent growth is forecast to exceed the global average by more than 500 basis points prologis.getbynder.com due to limited modern warehouse space and growing demand prologis.getbynder.com.
- California’s new legislation (e.g., AB 98) may inspire other states to restrict new warehouse construction prologis.getbynder.com. Developers and occupiers will need creative solutions to meet demand in constrained markets.
AFL helps customers navigate these real‑estate dynamics by offering flexible storage solutions: pop‑up warehouses during peak seasons, regional distribution hubs and cross‑dock facilities to buffer delays.
Consolidation & Industry Expansion
Prologis expects consolidation in the freight industry to accelerate, with mergers and acquisitions driving technology investment and expansion prologis.getbynder.com. For shippers, consolidation can mean:
- Access to better technology and services as larger logistics providers invest in digital platforms and advanced analytics.
- Potential capacity constraints if major carriers dominate certain lanes or markets.
- AFL maintains partnerships with a diverse mix of carriers and forwarders to ensure competitive rates and avoid capacity bottlenecks.
U.S. Imports & Global Trade Outlook
Despite trade tensions and tariffs, Prologis predicts that U.S. imports will grow faster than GDP and that East Coast ports will gain a larger share after the International Longshoreman Association (ILA) contract is ratified prologis.getbynder.com. Key implications:
- Importers must balance West Coast and East Coast routes to mitigate risks from labour strikes or port congestion.
- Cross‑border e‑commerce flows will continue to expand beyond traditional Asia–U.S. lanes, creating opportunities in emerging markets.
Conclusion
Air cargo demand, tightening warehouse supply, industry consolidation and shifting trade flows will shape freight markets in 2025. AFL prepares clients by securing air‑freight capacity, offering flexible storage solutions, diversifying routes and maintaining partnerships across carriers and brokers. With e‑commerce driving growth, companies that optimise their logistics strategies will capture market share while maintaining resilience.
